Early forecasting is predicting a slightly below average hurricane season thanks to a weaker El Niño– possibly as few as four hurricanes!
Scientists at Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project say a weak or moderate El Niño is likely by the height of the Atlantic hurricane season. As a result, the early forecast calls for 11 named storms, four of which could intensify into hurricanes, including two with winds topping 100 mph.
Currently the probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast is 42%, compared to the usual 52% average. But there is also a 24% chance of a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast.
While it is an early forecast, the CSU report has an accurate track record – 80%, correctly calling 28 of 35 anticipated above and below-average seasons.
AccuWeather also made its early predictions, anticipating 10 named storms, five hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Whoever proves correct, it only takes one hurricane to have a major impact.